Australia Day memory

1988 Australia Day, Bicentenary tall ships. One of the best days I have ever experienced. Was living in Darlo. at the time so easy to wander into town,down to harbor, or high ground of Oxford Street for view.
Amazing day, lovely summer day heaps of people in town but no hassling, everyone was just really mellow with smiles on their faces.
Happy Australia Day!

Unintend consequences of Iran sanctions

This is fun
Iran sanctions.  Pressure on world banking and trade,pressure on energy, now pressure on shipping. All this cannot be helpful for the world economy.  Not saying it will but, there could be a strong possibility a lot of people in various parts of the world might just get pissed off with USA causing them strife when Iran only seemed like it could possibly cause them harm. They start trading with Iran.For example, all it takes is one member of the opposition in the Japanese Diet to say :"I know it's nuclear issue and all, but going along with USA is really not helpful", Prime Minister is not all that popular there as it is, especially with China pumping gas and selling cars.. Think he might have some takers for a change of government? Attitudes do change. Now what happens? Enforcement of sanctions could eventually lead to bizarre conflicts..Each country has its own story. Unintended consequences.
This is so radical that there has to be unintended consequences. The major economic forces, if you will, on the planet are seemingly coming under control of one nation. As necessary as it sounds that's a lot of power in one guy's hands. 
Will China say gosh we're sorry, sure we'll fall under your thumb.

Mitsubishi Bubble

In the early noughties brain power at Misubishi North America came up with the world's worst strategy. Zero,Zero,Zero Zero down, Zero % interest, Zero payments for one year.
 Target new college grads. Everyone signed up for free cars. At end of year quite a few were reluctant to start paying on a year old car that had depreciated and as more were repoed and hit auctions down went book value.
This caused Mitsu North America to ask their friends at Daimler Benz for more money, a request that eventually led to the divorce of Mitsu. and Daimler Benz.
Some how this adventure into selling things on the never never should have lit a bulb or two in the real estate/mortgage biz, but it didn't.

Funny

Subject: Origin of a Christmas

A Christmas Story . . . for people having a bad day



When four of Santa's elves got sick, the trainee elves did not produce toys as fast as the regular ones, and Santa began to feel the Pre-Christmas pressure.

Then Mrs. Claus told Santa her Mother was coming to visit, which stressed Santa even more.

When he went to harness the reindeer, he found that three of them were about to give birth and two others had jumped the fence and were out, Heaven knows where.

Then when he began to load the sleigh, one of the floorboards cracked, the toy bag fell to the ground and all the toys were scattered.

Frustrated, Santa went in the house for a cup of apple cider and a shot of rum. When he went to the cupboard, he discovered the elves had drank all the cider and hidden the liquor. In his frustration, he accidentally dropped the cider jug, and it broke into hundreds of little glass
pieces  all over the kitchen floor. He went to get the broom and found the mice had eaten all the straw off the end of the broom.

Just then the doorbell rang, and irritated Santa marched to the door, yanked it open, and there stood a little angel with a great big Christmas tree.

The angel said very cheerfully, 'Merry Christmas, Santa. Isn't this a lovely day? I have a beautiful tree for you. Where would you like me to stick it?'

And so began the tradition of the little angel on top of the Christmas tree.

Financial Reform: Post Crisis?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Thomas M. Hoenig
President
Some believe that that the industry is over-regulated, which may be true, but we should not confuse over-regulated with well-regulated..."

http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/speeches/hoenig-DC-Women-Housing-Finance-2-23-11.pdf

Continental Illinois to big to fail

Continental Illinois and “Too Big to Fail”. History of the Eighties—Lessons for the Future. 237.
From conclusion:"By the

early 1990s, many of the issues surrounding TBTF had been addressed under FDICIA, but

the problem of systemic risk remains, as does the question of how regulators would respond

today to a dilemma similar to the one they confronted in May 1984."
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/history/235_258.pdf

Stopping Shipping Pirates

Build ships to deal with pirates. Original thought was to have the ability for the ship to channel super heated steam to outlets on side of ship. Open the outlets up when pirates scaling side of ship,scald pirates they fall into sea and drown toodles pirate.
Another person modified this idea to channeling exhaust rather than steam. Same effect toodles pirate.
At present there is no real risk to pirates this would add a whole new dimension of risk to their outings.

ICCO sees balanced cocoa market in 2010/11

Commodities Now
The global cocoa market is forecast to be closely balanced in 2010/11, with a surplus of some 70,000 tonnes, despite political tension in top producer Ivory Coast, the head of the International Cocoa Organization said. "For the past five years we've experienced a deficit but now we are moving into a balance," ICCO Executive Director Jean-Marc Anga said.
By Camila Reed and David Brough, Reuters – for Commodities Now
http://bit.ly/dXrTZL

Corporate bond spreads and real activity in Euro area

CORPORATE BOND SPREADS AND

REAL ACTIVITY IN THE EURO AREA –

LEAST ANGLE REGRESSION

FORECASTING AND THE PROBABILITY

OF THE RECESSION
ECB
Marco Buchmann

This paper aims at providing a detailed analysis of the leading indicator

properties of corporate bond spreads for real economic activity in

the euro area.
http://bit.ly/eY3tf1

Zero Lower Bound Events

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

WORKING PAPER SERIES

Hess Chung

Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Jean-Philippe Laforte

Federal Reserve Board of Governors

David Reifschneider

Federal Reserve Board of Governors

John C. Williams

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

January 2011
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2011/wp11-01bk.pdf

The $4 trillion question:

what explains FX growth since the 2007 survey?
BIS Quarterly Review, December 2010
Michael R King and Dagfinn Rime
"Daily average foreign exchange market turnover reached $4 trillion in April 2010, 20% higher than in 2007. Growth owed largely to the increased trading activity of "other financial institutions", which contributed 85% of the higher turnover. Within this customer category, the growth is driven by high-frequency traders, banks trading as clients of the biggest dealers, and online trading by retail investors. Electronic trading has been instrumental to this increase, particularly algorithmic trading."
http://bit.ly/hwgVi5

US and China lead choc market recovery, Barry Callebaut

"Recovery in the chocolate market is underway in the US, Brazil and China but Western Europe has been slow to rebound and Eastern Europe still shows negative growth rates, said Barry Callebaut as it released robust full year results for 2010."
Confectionery News
Jayne Byrne
http://bit.ly/9sJZpf

Quantitative easing and commodity markets

London, 1 November 2010

"A warning by an International Energy Agency (IEA) analyst last week that quantitative easing (QE) risked inflating nominal commodity prices and derailing the recovery drew a withering response from Nobel Economics Laureate Paul Krugman..."
John Kemp, Reuters market analyst
Commodities Now
http://bit.ly/aUBks6

China and the future of Rare Earth Elements

Commodities Now
John Mauldin, Outside the Box & Thoughts From the Frontline London, 16 October 2010
A recent diplomatic spat between China and Japan has heightened territorial tensions and called attention to China's growing forcefulness with foreign powers. One of the more intriguing aspects of this development was China's suspension of the export of "rare earth" elements (REE) to Japan.
http://bit.ly/9aYGpP

Alarm raised on Chinese interest rates

"China must immediately hike interest rates and appreciate its currency to combat asset bubbles and boost household consumption, a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee has said. "
-Sid Verma-
Emerging Markets
http://bit.ly/beFs4Q