Saturday, July 24, 2010

ECB insists stress tests are credible

Claire Jones Risk Magazine-Banking
ECB denies claims stress test scenarios were not severe enough
http://bit.ly/cRVHIZ

HSBC enters energy derivatives market-Risk.Net

Author Katie Holliday
HSBC and Total Oil Trading expect to offer their first products in a few months' time
http://bit.ly/b7o95l 

Remote ship loading trial starts in Pilbara Steel Guru

(Sourced from Energy-daily.com  http://bit.ly/aZeE2w
I absolutely love this stuff.

Wuhan Iron & Steel snaps up Venezuelan ore

"Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, China's third-biggest steelmaker, will buy iron ore from Venezuela at a long-term contract price this year, paving the way for a "China Price" separate from what the big three global miners are charging."-China Mining .Org
http://bit.ly/dj3CKj

Friday, July 23, 2010

Analysis - On the brink of backwardation Argus Media

http://bit.ly/bTjJ80

Questions & Answers 2010 EU-wide stress testing exercise

"Q1: What does it mean to stress test a bank?..."
Europa Press Release Reference: MEMO/10/355 Date: 23/07/2010

http://bit.ly/aMJylm

Financial Amplification of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia

 Tobias Adrian, Erkko Etula, and Jan J.J. Groen  Federal Reserve Bank of New York


http://bit.ly/aL0ubH



Independents Contribute To Gulf of Mexico Offshore Oil Industry

Oil&Gas Eurasia-IHS Global Insight
http://bit.ly/cBwRNd

Contango and the real cost of carry

By John Kemp, Reuters market analyst-Commodities Now
"For the last two years, the contango structure embedded in futures prices has far exceeded the actual cost of owning physical raw materials such as crude oil, aluminium and copper, explaining the strong interest from traders and hedge funds in owning inventories or the warehouses, elevators and tank farms that store them."
http://bit.ly/cLhjXT

A wonderful collection of thought

Reserve Bank of Australia 50th Anniversary Symposium
9 February 2010
"2010 marks the 50th Anniversary of the Reserve Bank of Australia. As part of our celebrations, a high-level Symposium was held in Sydney on Tuesday, 9 February 2010."
http://bit.ly/dh2wf7

EPA Calls for Further Study of Keystone XL

Dow Jones Newswire Edward Welsch
From: DownStream Today

http://bit.ly/aueUrm

Auto makers,banks,Russia

July 22, 2010

Captivating Borrowers
By Tai Adelaja
Russia Profile
"As Russia Recovers from the Global Financial Downturn, Foreign Auto Loan Banks Lure in General Bank Customers With Lower Interest Rates "-more
http://bit.ly/daofVv

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Natural Gas Prices Up At All Locations-The Pork Network

"Natural gas prices increased across all market locations, as high temperatures continued to envelop most of the lower 48 States. Price increases likely resulted from warmer-than-normal weather across most of the country. While temperatures were warmer than normal in most of the lower 48 States, the southeast was especially hot, with temperatures averaging above 80 degrees through most of the region. On Wednesday, July 21, the natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub averaged $4.70 per MMBtu. Natural gas consumption for power generation increased 10 percent on the week and 24 percent compared with year-ago levels, according to estimates from BENTEK Energy Services, LLC. Prices generally remained highest in the northeastern United States, where average temperatures were in the 70s and 80s. The price yesterday for delivery into New York City, at Zone 6 off Transcontinental Gas Pipeline was $5.21 per MMBtu, an increase of 29 cents or 6 percent on the week".-more  http://bit.ly/aRMNA7

Eastern Quebec oil discovery to be developed

Haldimand, a shallow discovery judged to have at least 7.7 million bbl of recoverable 53° gravity oil on Quebec’s eastern Gaspe Peninsula, is to be developed. 
http://bit.ly/9hGMZm

The Seeds of a Crisis:

A Theory of Bank Liquidity and Risk‐taking over the Business Cycle by Viral Acharya and Hassan Naqvi
Discussant:
Charles Leung,
City Univ. of Hong Kong
http://bit.ly/cjcDOQ

Large cocoa purchase to have negligible impact on choc industry, ICCO

Confectionery news .com
"The reported purchase of 240,100 tonnes of cocoa on the London futures market by a sole trader will not impact hugely on supply to industry, as cocoa processors have already shored up bean stocks for the next four months, claims the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO)."
http://bit.ly/bajLyv


Aluminium U.S. Canada from Steel Guru


"Aluminum shipment growth rate accelerates in US and Canada



US service center aluminum shipments jumped 37.7% above those of June 2009 to 123,500 tonnes, bringing 2010 H1 shipments to 615,800 tonnes, 17.4% more than last year. Month end aluminum inventories of 311,000 tonnes were 15.3% greater than a year ago and at current shipping rates, equal to 2.5 month supply.

In Canada, metals service centers shipped 12,600 tonnes of aluminum products, a rise of 12.2% from the same month last year. H1 aluminum shipments of 68,600 tonnes are 5.3% above those of the 2009 half. Inventories at the end of June totaled 30,600 tonnes, 3.3% below year ago inventories and equal to 2.4 month supply at current shipping rates.

The Metals Activity Report, based on data from metals service centers in the United States and Canada is produced by the Metals Service Center Institute and a third-party econometrics and strategy firm, McCoy, Scott & Company."

Platts: U.S. Distillate Output Jumps to 18-Month High Oil&Gas Eurasia

"U.S. stocks of middle distillates climbed 3.935 million barrels for the week ending July 16 as refiners pushed output to an 18-month high while demand tapered off, an analysis of oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday. This analysis and commentary is provided by Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review, a supplement to Platts Oilgram Price Report."
http://bit.ly/bOdUKq

Has Liffe already intervened in cocoa market? Commodities Now

" NYSE Liffe may have already intervened, at least informally, in the cocoa market this month to ensure smooth expiry of the July 2010 contract, if recent trading activity and price movements are anything to go by."
http://bit.ly/bb7MVI

Cocoa rumpus raises chance of commodities crackdown Commodities Now

"Accusations of excessive speculation in London's cocoa market have come at the worst possible time for theNYSE Liffe exchange, and could lead to the introduction of tougher rules, lawyers and analysts said. London's commodity markets are under pressure to tighten regulation as the United States pushes forward with plans to tame speculative activity that was blamed by some for pushing food and energy prices to record highs in 2008"


http://bit.ly/9xazue

Montreal lockout disrupts Canadian shipments

"Negotiations to end a four-day lockout at Canada’s Port of Montreal start today, under the supervision of government-appointed mediators."
Port Strategy

http://bit.ly/csRyw4

DJ Liffe Says, “No Evidence Of Abuse In July Cocoa Contract.”

Eberling Heffernan
Live Trading News
"The July contract tapped 33 yr highs

NYSE Euronext’s (NYX) NYSE Liffe said it saw no abusive behavior in the July cocoa futures contract that expired last Friday and resulted in a massive draw down of nearly all of Liffe’s cocoa stocks."

http://bit.ly/cWK8zF

Legal experts identify end-user issues under new US act

Risk.Net
Pauline McCallion
As US regulators embark on redefining over-the-counter derivatives trading, energy end-users need to be aware of how they will be categorised and the potential impact on trading costs.
http://bit.ly/dB6KlL

The Information Value of the Stress Test and Bank Opacity

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Authors: Donald P. Morgan ,Stavros Peristiani,Vanessa Savino
http://bit.ly/cAghs8

Delek: No Plans to Acquire Montreal Refinery

by DownstreamToday Staff
July 20, 2010


"Delek US Holdings, Inc. announced Tuesday that it is no longer exploring the possible purchase of Shell Canada's Montreal Refinery"
http://bit.ly/askGIN

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Lending Coal a Hand-Commodities Now

Houston, 21 July 2010
"When the World Bank approved a $3.75 billion loan to build a highly efficient coal plant in South Africa, it provoked outrage among many in the developed world who responded that those resources should go to cleaner energy forms. Supporters have said, however, that the facility is needed to bring electric power to the underserved"
http://bit.ly/boARHI

The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific

BIS for more Bank for International Settlements scroll down
BIS Papers No 52
July 2010
This volume is a collection of the speeches, presentations and papers from a conference on "The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific".
http://bit.ly/dhU25k

RUSSIA’S GOLD RESERVES UP 11% IN 1ST HALF OF Y 2010

Ebeling Heffernan Live Trading News
\http://bit.ly/dBvcPI

BP’s oil spill to tighten global oil supply - report

Energy Risk Lianna Brinded


BP’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill will tighten global oil supply as US oil production is set to wane, following expectations the disaster will lead to stricter regulation and closer scrutiny of drilling operations in the US, say Barclays Capital
http://bit.ly/cIczSl 

Successful Launch of Hungarian Power Exchange Commodities Now

http://bit.ly/b9xQ6E

DP World to share box information-Port Strategy

 DP World’s terminal operations are to start sending data on containers to an external IT platform called SICIS (Shared Intermodal Container Information System), following successful pilot demonstrations.
http://bit.ly/cXMTpZ

Gold bounces from five-day losing streak on global cues-The Hindu

http://bit.ly/cDEwBW

31% of oil and gas firms lack ETRM solutions

RISK.Net-Lianna Binded
Nearly one third of all oil and gas companies are more susceptible to systemic risk, as a report reveals 31% of these firms lack an energy trading and risk management (ETRM) solution for their operations
http://bit.ly/c6k9EE 

Kazakhstan Ready To Support Nabucco With Gas OIL & GAS EURASIA

Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev knows a thing or two about changing things to his country's advantage. The latest evidence of this came last Sunday when he told German Chancellor Angela Merkel Kazakhstan was ready to supply its gas to Germany through the Nabbucco pipeline. Experts believe Kazakhstan could redirect some of its Caspian gas away from Russia to other destinations, including those not in the West.


http://bit.ly/bCjyy6

Micro and macro volatility in the oil market

Commodities Now


http://bit.ly/a4366W

Bank of England Minutes

Bank of England Minutes from July available at feed scroll down other BofE postings also.

Outstanding article

Chinese buyers learn to dig, scoop global mining assets

"......That is bringing more would-be Chinese dealmakers to Toronto and Vancouver, where much of the world's capital-raising for mining exploration takes place."
Phred Dvorak From: The Wall Street Journal
http://bit.ly/ajgUiO

Amazing vessel

"Qatargas' state-of-the art Q-Max LNG carriers are capable of delivering 266,000 cubic meters of LNG during a single voyage. They are the biggest LNG carriers in the world. The company's fleet of Q-Flex and Q-Max carriers represents a step-change in LNG shipping technology. Not only are they 50 to 80 percent larger than conventional LNG carriers, they also contain an on-board reliquefaction system. In addition to this, key environmental objectives have been taken into consideration in the build. With approximately 40 percent lower carbon emissions than conventional carriers, they offer a safe, efficient and reliable means of delivering LNG around the world"


Qatargas Delivers First Q-Max Cargo to Japan by Qatargas Operating Co. Ltd.


Downstream Today


http://bit.ly/cblXRL

Saudi's Tuwairqi Steel to start production by Q4

While some countries become self absorbed some countries are getting to work.
"Saudi owned Tuwairqi Steel Mills Limited (TSML) aims to start production by the beginning of the fourth quarter and grow to eventually become Pakistan's largest steel producer, a TSML executive said on Tuesday."by Amena Bakr on Wednesday, 21 July 2010 Arabian Business


http://bit.ly/bAe0Az

UAE's RAKIA plans IPO of Georgia port in 2011

The UAE emirate of Ras Al Khaimah's sovereign wealth fund plans an initial public offering for its port of Poti project in Georgia for 2011, its chief executive officer said on Tuesday.-by Erika Solomon Arabian Buisness .com see feeds below

http://bit.ly/bo3ACD

Medvedev, Halonen to talk economy, energy, adoptions

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will hold talks with his Finnish counterpart Tarja Halonen on Wednesday. RIANOVOSTI

http://bit.ly/9YOAda

Apache snags BP assets in US, Canada, Egypt for $7 billion

Jul 20, 2010

Eric Watkins
OGJ Oil Diplomacy Editor

BP PLC said it has entered into several agreements to sell Apache Corp. some of its upstream assets valued at $7 billion. Among the assets are BP’s Permian basin assets in Texas and New Mexico; its western Canadian upstream gas assets; and the Western Desert business concessions and East Badr El-din exploration concession in Egypt.


http://bit.ly/cFzU4b

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Shopping Tip

Before  making an impulse buy, people should visualize how the item will display at a garage sale.

Aon Benfield launches first pan-Asian typhoon model for cat risk

http://bit.ly/b6QwaZ 


Two companies offer new insurance products covering typhoon catastrophe risk in Asia

Author: Kathy Wang
Source: Asia Risk | 20 Jul 2010

Loonie softens after Bank of Canada hikes rate

By QMI AGENCY
Calgary Sun


http://bit.ly/d5TTlY

Monetary theory from a Chinese historical perspective

http://bit.ly/9paq6o

A CAUTIOUS NOTE ON THE DESIGN OF VOLATILITY DERIVATIVES

Abstract
This cautious note aims to point at the potential risks for the financial system caused by various increasingly popular volatility derivatives including variance swaps on futures of equity indices. It investigates the pricing of variance swaps under the 3/2 volatility model. Carr with Itkin and Sun have discussed the pricing of variance swaps under this type of model. This paper studies a special case of this model and observes an explosion of prices for squared volatility and variance swaps. It argues that such a price explosion may have deeper economic reasons, which should be taken into account when designing volatility derivatives.  http://bit.ly/cLJ9DB

China vents ire over IEA claim

http://bit.ly/bQOGua

China today disputed that it passed the US last year to become the world's largest energy user, and defended its efforts in boosting cleaner energy sources.

China unveils major oil and gas plan

China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for energy production and consumption reaches new levels as the country unveils plans to increase oil and gas production by a third by 2020
Author: Lianna Brinded

Source: Energy Risk
20 Jul 2010
http://bit.ly/9yJNp1



Base Metals: Few signs of Chinese production cuts in June

http://bit.ly/cuZAEv

Box flow study for Sydney

20 Jul 2010



Sydney Ports Corporation is commissioning a study to find out the origin and destination of the container flows coming into and out of the port.-Port Strategy   http://bit.ly/9FWJn5

Climate Change Risk Management: Legal Liabilities

by Kai Alderson, Fasken Martineau, & Stephen Higgs Perkins CoieJuly 19, 2010-Downstream Today  http://bit.ly/a22DeS

RBA: Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

Sydney - 6 July 2010   http://bit.ly/9KQGbQ

India not worried about hefty current account deficit

http://bit.ly/9yYsHK 
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
NEW DELHI: India’s $13 billion current account deficit is manageable and will be covered by capital inflows, Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said on Monday, playing down concerns about the worst shortfall in nearly 3 decades.

Cotton spot rate falls

http://bit.ly/9ujhrX KARACHI: Spot rate of average-quality lint fell for the fourth consecutive day on Monday as speculation about the extension of duty on yarn exports stoked panic among ginners and growers, dealers said-The International News

Monday, July 19, 2010

More Bank of England

Housing Equity Withdrawal (HEW)
Q1 2010
     http://bit.ly/crnPpk

CBOE to launch tail event index

http://bit.ly/9CCUrw 




The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) will launch a new index designed to allow investors to take positions on market expectations of extreme losses.

Bank of England

Working Paper No. 394
How do individual UK producer prices behave?
Philip Bunn(1) and Colin Ellis(2)
Abstract
This paper examines the behaviour of individual producer prices in the United Kingdom, and uncovers a
number of stylised facts about pricing behaviour. First, on average 26% of producer prices change each
month, although there is considerable heterogeneity between sectors and price changes occur less
frequently when measured by the average for individual products. Second, the probability of price
changes is not constant over time: prices are most likely to change one, four and twelve months after
they were previously set. Third, the distribution of price changes is wide, although a significant number
of changes are relatively small and close to zero. Fourth, prices that change more frequently tend to do
so by less. And fifth, price changes are much less persistent at the disaggregated level than aggregate
inflation data imply. We find that conventional pricing theories struggle to match these results,
particularly the marked heterogeneity.


For complete paper&more Bank of England publications scroll down to feed

Drilling ban may help oil sands

"The future of oil sands is here: they are cost effective, and their face is green."
Oil&Gas Journal-Sam Fletcher


http://bit.ly/9K8t6a

Cocoa bean grind up in US and Europe

"Cocoa grinding data is an indicator of demand from industry, with the product being used by manufacturers to create as cocoa ‘semi-finished’ products: Cocoa butter, cocoa powder and cocoa liquor." Confectionery News By Jane Byrne , 16-Jul-2010  

http://bit.ly/aZF1sq

FOMC faces tricky task in avoiding another bubble

FOMC faces tricky task in avoiding another bubble



Author: Central Banking Newsdesk


Source: Risk magazine
19 Jul 2010

http://bit.ly/aIzsiZ

Cocoa king Anthony Ward is hungry for African food production

Anthony "Chocfinger" Ward, the commodities trader whose group Armajaro Holdings has just cornered the cocoa market, is planning his next move into food.-Tele.http://bit.ly/ag cKo8

Sensex opens lower by 100 points on profit booking

"The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex today opened nearly 100 points lower on selling by funds and retail investors amid weak Asian markets." The Hindu more from The Hindu scroll down
http://bit.ly/b9zrUm



ARE YOU WATCHING THE VIX?


1.VIX: 26.25; +1.11
2. VXN: 26.87; +0.3
3. VXO: 26.49; +1.65
4. Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.1; +0.22
-Shayne Heffernan  Live Trading          http://bit.ly/962O1N

Monday Market Monitor - Iron Ore - WEEK 28 - On down path

The Indian iron ore spot prices continued on downhill track last week absolutely in tandem with the steel market movements in China, where steel mills have taken a rearguard action to curtail production and costs to survive the ordeal. -Steel Guru
http://bit.ly/dl5xrP

Container traffic picking up at Montreal

http://bit.ly/dmqPNP

"Container traffic is back to 2007 levels and not so far short of the 2008 record, so the Montreal Port Authority (MPA) is confident it will deliver a sound operating profit in 2010, the Montreal Gazette reported."--Cargo News Asia

Macroeconomic indicators - India to grow 9pct in Q1 - Mr Basu

Steel Guru
http://bit.ly/cGJoaB

'EU not doing enough on Nabucco'

"In Europe there is a lot of talk on Nabucco ... but in reality little gets done," Nazarbayev said at a joint news briefing with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Kazakh capital, adding that his comments were not criticism
The pipeline thing is huge. More from Upstream
http://bit.ly/aL62OO

Azerbaijan’s natural gas reserves will be sufficient for 100 years - Minister of Industry and Energy

The riches of the Earth keep flowing. Who would have thought there was this much gas available. Look at the lives commodities like natural gas change.

http://bit.ly/cOaR63

Stuff that makes commoditiy markets so interesting

http://bit.ly/9iXlyv

Bulgaria Signs South Stream Road Map

Nabucco/South Stream is just so interesting how it's playing out. Gas, Russia, Europe,pipelines and it's all real not a screen writer in sight.
Commodities are the world.

Next story, again from Moscow Times
Gazprom Denies RWE South Stream Invite

http://bit.ly/aKiBlx

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Growing an account

British financier Anthony Ward behind £658m cocoa trade

"The businessman began his career as a motorcycle dispatch rider before becoming a commodities trader specialising in cocoa and coffee."- From U.K. Telegraph

http://bit.ly/a180Jj

Heat wave worry for crops in southern Russia -

http://bit.ly/csMQJU

The abnormal heat that has smothered Russia since mid-June is destroying crops in southern Russia, the Emergencies Ministry said on Sunday.

Grain trading opportunities-world markets. Start trading

TCP terminates sugar import contract of 100,000 tons

"KARACHI: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has cancelled its contract to a Chinese firm for the import of 100,000 tons of sugar because it failed to deliver the sweetener by the due-date."
http://bit.ly/cJhe3w

US businesses see Doha trade deal momentum next year

Sunday, July 18, 2010



GENEVA: Trade is moving back up the US political agenda and there is scope to reach a deal next year in the long-running Doha round and other stalled trade negotiations, industry lobbyists said on Friday.     http://bit.ly/cgqQOw